Life in a small town

Coldest Weather in Toronto in over 100 Years …

Ballad Of A Thin Man”, Bob Dylan, from the album “Highway 61 Revisited”, (1965)

People walk through snow on a cold day in Quebec City, Canada on December 27, 2017. In Canada, extreme cold warnings were issued for scores of communities across the country, including the heavily-populated provinces of Ontario and Quebec. While Toronto reported temperatures of minus 15 C (5 F) and Ottawa minus 25 C, the coldest spot in Canada was minus 42.8 C in Armstrong, Ontario, according to Environment Canada. / AFP PHOTO / Alice ChicheALICE CHICHE/AFP/Getty Images

I hope you’re staying warm this New Year’s January 02, 2018.  Much of our great country is under extreme cold warning.  In Calgary, on New Year’s Eve, it was feeling like -40°C with the wind chill  and it was so cold that Edmonton cancelled it’s outdoors New Years activities over the weekend (those Redmontonians are such pussies).

Back to the Calgary New Year’s Eve Ball Drop, watching TV coverage of the frozen chosen gathered to watch the Big Ball Drop in the windy outdoors, lots of miserably cold beautiful people on display, and I am certain that the Big Ball was the only ball that dropped. All the rest were snuggling up tight and warm.  CTV News has reported that much of Canada has been colder than Antarctica – and even colder than Mars! 

Ontario Premier

Ontario Premier

Toronto has shortened its New Year’s Eve party due to the coldest weather forecast in over 100 years.  And it’s so cold in Ottawa that some Liberal Ministers have been caught with their hands in their own pockets for once!  Speaking of Liberals with their hands in your pockets, do you know what come into effect on January 01, 2018?

Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax.

That’s right – the long-awaited Liberal carbon tax on everything comes into effect in 2018. Now some of you might note that it is often quite cold in Canada – and you’d be right. It takes a special level of Liberal “Rules don’t Apply To Me” arrogance to jack up taxes on hard-working Canadians who are simply trying to heat their homes in the dead of winter.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks with the media in the foyer of the House of Commons following the release of an ethics report in Ottawa on Wednesday December 20, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld ORG XMIT: ajw105

So. seriously folks, remember Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax? It hasn’t received any coverage lately, because who in their right mind would want to draw attention to a Global Warming tax going into general revenue  in a country whose economy in in the toilet and the weather is colder than Mars?

The Canadian Prime Minister cancelled all outdoor New Year’s Eve festivities because of extreme cold, but found the unsurprising results of the Ethics Commissioner Investigation into the Aga Kahn Vacationgate shenanigans to be too hot to handle, too much of a surprise.

The last impression many Canadians have of Justin Trudeau in this year of Our Lord, 2017, was of him, shock-faced, rattled and babbling incoherently for a TV eternity of a minute and a half.

For all the sense he made, he could have been speaking Njerep ( I have a Masters in Google search) a language that survives only on the tongues of four people in the entire world, the youngest of whom is already 60.

It’s not because the question was tough, nor could it possibly have been unforeseen. He had been found guilty by the ethics commissioner of, not one, but four provisions of the conflict of interest law. I last touched on this matter in January, 2017, almost a year ago in https://notmyfirstrodeoblog.me/2017/01/10/meanwhile-on-other-fronts/

The truth underlying his genuine surprise is the foundational Liberal belief (of all Liberals of every station in life, politician, bureaucrat or voter) that the rules don’t apply to them. The foundational platform plank of all Liberal views is thatRULES DON’T APPLY TO LIBERALS! Rules are for the rubes and suckers who vote for us, and especially for the evil dead who don’t vote for us.

So we don’t want any coverage of Global Warming taxes and woe to any MSM who report on it. They might get excluded from the next Liberal Ministerial Press Conference and we can’t have that being talked about in the Ottawa cocktail parties.  And this is exactly how the Liberals and the NDP want it, don’t you dare tell the rubes that we are stealing their hard earned dollarettes to fund all our pet projects  – from the Big Liberal Carbon Tax Slush Fund.

With this sort of wind(chill)fall for lefty politicians it is (ice)crystal clear that they can’t pass up another trough, and that is what it is really all about. It could never be clearer in just whose pocket, (the progressives) and which pocket, (the one closest to the warm sweaty crotch), that all the Canadian Media (those world famous legends in their own minds) are comfortably curled up in.

Canadian Collaborators

Canadian Collaborators

But it, the “Carbon Tax”, is still there, and now starting to cost you all your hard-earned dollarettes.

And just in case my American brethren think this is a “Made in Canada” issue, your own EPA has even more draconian powers to tax and waste and sacrifice all our first born children on the altar of their insidious, incestuous daisy chain of abuse.

And the Liberals and the NDP are very tight-lipped about how much it will end up costing you all, you voters you! The last thing all those Left Wing sword swallowers want you to understand is just how badly you are getting screwed to pay for all their special interest parties and projects.

Alberta Premier

Alberta Premier

However, thanks to a new RBC Economics report – we now have an idea.  During this fiscal year – prior to the full implementation of Trudeau’s carbon tax – “carbon levies are expected to hit $4.8 billion.” And what’s going to happen after Trudeau’s full carbon tax goes into effect in …well, right now?

The numbers are likely going to double! That is almost 10 billion dollars 0f new Liberal taxes for all the Liberal causes like, to name just a very few … “the Aga Khan Foundation”, “National Health”, “National Broadcasting”,  and so on ad nauseam. Emperor Palpatine has got nothing on the Progressive Environmentalist priesthood running Canada from the halls of power and corner offices in Ottawa and the Provincial Capitals.

Socialist Carbon Taxes are TRULY something to celebrate

Socialist Carbon Taxes are TRULY something to celebrate

That’s almost $10 billion a year, out of the pockets of taxpayers and consumers – which will hit low-income families the hardest.

That’s money gone from the bottom line of Canada’s manufacturers and agricultural sectors, already in disastrous straits, which will hurt their ability to hire more Canadians. And the revenue generated by this tax will rise each and every year, as Trudeau increases the levy from $10 per tonne to $50 in only a few short years.

When politicians of all stripes and religions all get together to tell the voters that this is not a tax grab you can be pretty certain that we have another BOHICA going on. Check out thePan-Canadian Framework

Just another little political and economic joy inducing tidbit from you friendly Progressive Governments in their nice warm corner offices across the country. “Something to sing about, tune up a string about”, definitely “Something to Sing About“, eh Canada? How are things working out for all you Canadian taxpayers since Oscar Brand wrote “Something to Sing About” waaay back in 1970?

Cheers

Joe

There’s a WHOLE LOT of stupid goin’ on, but Carbon Taxes in the coldest country on the planet raises the stupid bar to a whole higher cosmic order of magnitude.  Who would ever have guessed that Canadian voters were this idiotic? Who Knew? It brings a whole new meaning to “Low Information Voter”.

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Pen as Sword - Social Commentary

Global Warming Tax a Sacrifice on the Altar of Gaea

Ballad Of A Thin Man”, Bob Dylan, from the album “Highway 61 Revisited” (August, 1961)

Gaea

Gaea

Here is a little uncharitable whine … I guess the old whiny Joe is still grumbling away in the back seat of my bus …

The religion of Gaea, that is the worship of “Mother Earth” as the earth mother and source of everything in the universe offers up evidence every day of the inherent evil of this willful, self serving, “naked emperor” blindness our society calls “modern civilization”.

In Greek mythology, Gaia (/ˈɡ.ə/ or /ˈɡ.ə/ from Ancient Greek Γαῖα, a poetical form of Γῆ , “land” or “earth”[1]), also spelled Gaea, is the personification of the Earth[2] and one of the Greek primordial deities. Gaia is the ancestral mother of all life: the primal Mother Earth goddess.

She is the immediate parent of Uranus (the sky), from whose sexual union she bore the Titans (themselves parents of many of the Olympian gods) and the Giants, and of Pontus (the sea), from whose union she bore the primordial sea gods. Her equivalent in the Roman pantheon was Terra.[3]

Anyway, why is ancient mythology more relevant than revealed truth? I guess anything is better than having to face being wrong about everything. If they had to face that,  then the only option would be self-inflicted euthanasia to escape the shame.  Remember Trudeau’s carbon tax?

It hasn’t received much coverage lately, which is exactly how the Liberals and the NDP want it, and it could never be clearer in just whose pocket, (the progressives) and which pocket, (the one closest to the crotch), that all the Canadian Media (those world famous legends in their own minds) are comfortably curled up in.

But it, the “Carbon Tax”, is still there, ready to cost you all your hard-earned dollars. And just in case my American brethren think this is a “Made in Canada” issue, your own EPA has even more draconian powers to tax and waste and sacrifice all our first born children on the altar of their insidious, incestuous daisy chain of abuse. And the Liberals are very tight-lipped about how much it will end up costing you all!

Emperor Palpatine

Emperor Palpatine

However, thanks to a new RBC Economics report – we now have an idea.  During this fiscal year – prior to the full implementation of Trudeau’s carbon tax – “carbon levies are expected to hit $4.8 billion.” And what’s going to happen after Trudeau’s full carbon tax goes into effect in just a few short weeks?

The numbers are likely going to double! That is almost 10 billion dollars 0f new Liberal taxes for all the Liberal causes like, to name just a very few … “the Aga Khan Foundation”, “National Health”, “National Broadcasting”,  and so on ad nauseam. Emperor Palpatine has got nothing on the Progressive Environmentalist priesthood running Canada from the halls of power in Ottawa.

That’s almost $10 billion a year, out of the pockets of taxpayers and consumers – which will hit low-income families the hardest. That’s money gone from the bottom line of Canada’s manufacturers and agricultural sectors, already in disastrous straits, which will hurt their ability to hire more Canadians. And the revenue generated by this tax will rise each and every year, as Trudeau increases the levy from $10 per tonne to $50 in only a few short years.

Leviathan

Leviathan or The Matter, Forme and Power of a Common-Wealth Ecclesiasticall and Civil—commonly referred to as Leviathan—is a book written by Thomas Hobbes (1588–1679) and published in 1651 (revised Latin edition 1668).[1][3][4]

That will amount to over 50 billion a year right into Justin’s hip pocket, right next to the little bag of medicinal dope and the flock of Canadian Media Geese. And just like our national “bird” the only thing the Canadian Media Geese leave us with is a lot of goose poop all over our lawns and parks as they flip US the bird from their comfortable taxpayer funded corner offices and watering holes in downtown Ontario.

These are all pretty big numbers I guess. Certainly way bigger than my pension cheque or even  Justin’s monthly trust fund benefits. Maybe we should remind ourselves of just what a billion is.  Check out this post here for the answer to the billion dollar question and skip on down half way to the part on BIG NUMBERS.

Over the past two years, Trudeau’s (and Rachel’s) out-of-control spending habits prove just one thing – The carbon tax will only exist to pad government coffers even more to spend on Liberal pet projects!

“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.”
– C.S. Lewis

And what conscience would that be, Mr. Lewis?  Surely there could be nothing remotely resembling a conscience among a priesthood of brights drowning in the sea of their own self-worship?  Indeed, Leviathan as evil personified and actualized in our day …

Cheers

Joe (The Grumpy Neanderthal from Alberta)

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Life in a small town, Politics and Economics

Considering Election Results …

Dire Straits, Money For Nothing, Chicks For Free,

As we try to figure out what the election results mean, here are a few insights:

After striking out in the big vast world, Justin Trudeau has returned home to the place he was raised (24 Sussex Dr.), finding it just a bit too scary out there in the real world.

On the flip side, Mr. Harper woke up to quite likely his worst nightmare. He woke up as a regular Calgary citizen with a Muslim as his Mayor, the NDP running his province, and the Liberals running his country….

Me, I have been busy as hell with my renovation project and trying run things after one staff person retired and the other can’t work in a dusty environment because of Asthma. Every day is one non-stop adrenaline rush and how one feels about things depends entirely on one’s viewpoint.

How the world looks, and how one handles it is very much a head game and one can choose to be freaked out or one can just keep on clubbing little dragons until you run out of clubs or they overwhelm ya.

AND …   WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!  BWAHAHAHA. Bet ya didn’t know that Life was a fatal STD.

Cheers

Joe

This Too Shall Pass

“When going to a Party with wine, women, and song. Always ascertain the vintage of the first two.”

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Politics and Economics

“plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose”

220px-Alphonse_Karrplus ça change, plus c’est la même chose“, Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr (24 November 1808 – 29 September 1890) was a French critic, journalist, and novelist. His epigrams are frequently quoted, and the title line is one of his best. Another was on the proposal to abolish capital punishment, “je veux bien que messieurs les assassins commencent”  “let the gentlemen who do the murders take the first step”, or “I wish the assassins to go first”, a view which I share.

Any time the system rewards bad behaviour the society always and everywhere get more bad behaviour. The never was a time in history when treating bad folks well caused them to rehabilitate themselves.

So, as anyone who is even slightly awake can attest to, the river of change is never ending, and yet we always seems to repeat the mistakes of the past.  I often think of time and change as the wind that blows away the chaff of our lives leaving only the important kernels of value behind.

Of course, to benefit from those kernels one has to actually pick them up and digest them and their wisdom and change one’s behaviour if one wants to “improve” one’s life.  Unfortunately, many seem to trundle along like so many cattle, chewing their cultural cud and treading the grains underfoot, the proverbial pearls before swine.

Still working away on my year-end. Have mostly fixed all the disasters resulting from the chaotic family disaster of May and June 2014 and will be wrapping things up shortly.  Had a nice long conversation with a friend, who also happens to be my accountant. I’ve known him for almost 20 years now. He informs me that there are major changes in our tax structures pending over the next two years. Seems that our tax rate here is set to increase from 14% to around 32% over the next two years. Hmmmm. Not great looking down the road.

NDP imagesNo surprise at that development since the cattle (OOOps, voters, my bad) here elected a mob of rabid socialists/communists known popularly in the resistance as Rachel and her Merry Band, robbing from the “rich” and giving a little to the poor along the way for good photo ops. Of course, most of their loot always goes to their Organized Labor voting base with little left over for the genuine poor and seniors and all those “useless” folks for whom we will soon be buying a new fleet of Mercy Vans to help recycle the used parts. What’s that you say??? “MOOOOOO’ve on”!  Right!  Whole lot of thinkin’ goin’ on there.

Combine a local tax rate of 32% with an exchange rate of 1.32 against the US dollar where a lot of our vendors are based, and the possibility of interest rate hikes following the next Federal election  to fix the exchange rate plunge, which would almost  certainly trigger a hike in the inflation rate (maybe double digits like we saw in the 80’s)  and the rosy complexion of the face of Canada starts to look decidedly Liberal, Leprous and Loser!

Rickards400Our jurisdiction is steadily moving from  the most business friendly Province in the Dominion to the most hostile and restrictive, and the so-called “Alberta Advantage” has been pissed away in an orgy of “TAX THE RICH”. And of course the “RICH” who usually have significantly more brains and a better understanding of how the world works, have already left or are in the process of leaving and the brunt of this will fall on the small business owners who have enough brains to see and understand what is going on (legal now in Canada) but not quite as much money as the “Rich” to take flight until the storm blows over.

Canada is not immune to “hitting the wall.” It doesn’t happen just to Third World countries. Some examples of OECD countries that experienced foreign exchange crises related to large government and current account deficits are Italy (1974), the United Kingdom (1976), Denmark (1980), Italy (1981), Ireland (1981), Belgium (1982), New Zealand (1984), Australia (1985), Sweden (1992) and Italy (1992). The typical response was a serious devaluation of the country’s currency, rising interest rates (double digit), fiscal austerity (major cutbacks in all government programs), and sharply rising unemployment in all sectors except those employed by governments at all levels.

Italy’s experience (1992) and New Zealand’s crisis (1984) and its aftermath may provide some insight into what Canada could expect if the Liberals or NDP take power in the upcoming Federal election and as they have promised, reverse the steady Conservative trend towards budget surpluses and reducing debt. Not only are Liberals and NDP unwilling to take the necessary actions to reduce the debt burden and spending but have promised in writing and in the media to dramatically increase spending. Don’t take my word for it, just take a look at all the information online and short order you will have “the facts M’am, just the facts”.  Of course they might go against what you get from your cool aide in which case just … “whatever …”.

The New Zealand crisis in 1984 provides an interesting example of what happens when a country “hits the wall” and its government has the political will to take longer-term corrective action. For a short time investors refused to buy New Zealand government bonds. The New Zealand dollar was devalued and a strict fiscal austerity program was introduced. The government removed subsidies from all sectors and virtually abolished quantitative import controls. State business enterprises were “corporatised” and, in many cases, sold off. Monopoly rights were removed from all government departments and internal product markets were significantly deregulated. Over a number of years, the New Zealand tax system was overhauled.

Canada dodged the bullet in the 80’s  by actually cutting back enough on spending and raising interest rates such that we wiggled through. Of course the Liberals giggled all the way to the bank because they also encouraged high inflation, and indexed everything except tax brackets. It was a massive “stealth” tax hike which moved even the poorest Canadians much higher in the tax brackets and no one in authority has ever acknowledged the scam.

So, is it time to start restructuring to adjust to the coming evils, or is it time to start looking abroad?  Many factors to consider in such a search.  Economic Performance, Social Networks, Cultural Factors, Crime, Housing, Business Climate, Natural Climate, Rule of Law, Education, and so on. My personal bias’s are towards English Speaking nominally Christian cultures and countries in the British tradition, that is tracing their roots to the British Empire and it’s traditions.

First thoughts are balanced between adjusting the business model and staying put OR cashing in all the chips and emigrating to somewhere like Australia or new Zealand, or wherever. I am cognizant that the grass is always greener and every culture and economy has it’s own set of problems. I think both the Australian and New Zealand economy is in about the same crappy shape as Canada’s, and I have seen a good part of the crappier social side of Canada in the Justice Dept, the Education system and the Healthcare arena, and I believe that Progressive Bureaucracies are a Global plague. So one needs to be very careful before jumping lest one wind up in the fire yelling W.T.F!!!! For example, just take a short read at Forbes about New Zealand.

Anyway, as the Socialists and the Progressive takers take more and more of the maker’s resources the maker’s will make less and less and eventually move on. The problem is “WHERE in the World …?” Meanwhile, batten down the hatches and prepare for a storm. Of course we can always hope that John Cleese got it right and no-one will get hurt

Cheers

Joe

cdn-ddh-heavy-weather-87471.jpgOh well, been there, done that, how bad can it get?

 

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Politics and Economics

Politics in a vacuum … Hello? Hello? Anybody home?

Thrive“, Casting Crowns, 2013,  from the album “Thrive”

Good start to the day, clear, cool, and brilliantly sunny, listening to “Casting Crowns” on iTunes.  Reading “Essays in Idleness“. Wonderfully apropos of what I have been thinking and commenting about the distinct absence of Canadian media coverage of anything political unless there is some way to twist things to make a dog and pony show of the Conservative Straw Man.

Where IS everybody??? Here in Alberta we saw a brief flurry of declarations about reversing everything the PC’s were trying to do with their budget and “cutbacks”. Of course one can’t seriously view anything the PC’s tried to “cutback” in the light of their ownership of the biggest wastrel spending orgy in the history of Alberta.

NDP imagesSince then there has been an absolute vacuum in the place where the media used to maliciously cover every fart and burp of the PC’s or the Wild Rose. Nothing new on all the sites related to the NDP and the Legislature might reasonably lead anyone (always supposing there are any “reasonable” voters to reason with) to suspect that the new incumbents in the halls of power were heavily shell shocked to discover the sheer magnitude of the stables they promised to clean out. No Hercules on that team either, no heroes, just ordinary bus drivers, teachers and green activists.

So, how about a couple of quotes from David Warren: “Everywhere I turn I see that an election is happening. But I can’t think of a way to stop it. … Aheu!

I gather that the term “low information voter” originated in Democratic Party circles in the USA, about one-quarter of a century ago. They applied it to members of the underclass who had voted Republican, possibly by mistake. But the term deserved a broader application, and by now it is used by all sides, and all sorts, including the poorly informed.

hitlerThere is a long, international tradition of choosing bigotry and stupor, in a conscious and enthusiastic way. People are funny like that: the more you tell them they are ignorant and crass, the prouder they become of their opinions. It has been suggested that my own casual and frequent references to the “idiotization” of the general public are unlikely to charm them. I fully agree. Flattering them would be morally wrong.”

Trussian purge ye-ctnhis enjoyable piece turns out to be a short gospel on the general popularity amongst the polity on America and Canada, of “self interested, stupid & short sighted” as a cause to be embraced with enthusiasm, and even flaunted, like nice hair or nice tits. Like a kind of “shake yur booty” of the voting classes, it has a catchy rhythm and an appeal to every constituency looking for a free nipple and no thought required (aka, “Progressive” Democratic or Liberal voters).

Justin_Trudea_F-bomb-markedIt ends nicely with a reference to our own Federal election taking place shortly – what?  you didn’t know?  No problem, almost no one else noticed either and anyway, the considered opinion amongst the chattering classes is that Adolf Mulcair is a shoo-in so what’s the point of voting anyway.

No sane human being would vote for Boy Trudeau – hmmmm – maybe not a good choice of words considering Liberal voters that I know.

House of Their Dreams”, Casting Crowns, 2013

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures and declares "You're fired!" at a rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, June 17, 2015. REUTERS/Dominick Reuter TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY - RTX1GZCO

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures and declares “You’re fired!” at a rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, June 17, 2015. REUTERS/Dominick Reuter TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY – RTX1GZCO

Another quote from David ” … Trump (whom I despise) appeals to “low information voters.” So do all the other candidates, of both parties. So do all the politicians up here in the Far North.

Because “low information voters” is what we have, in an overwhelming majority. The politicians rehearse statements every day that could not possibly survive a moment of intelligent scrutiny. They know they are not going to get any.

with-canada-pm-job-now-in-reach-angry-tom-thomas-mulcair-reins-in-temperBut what disturbs me about Boy Trudeau, say, or Marxo Mulcair, is that they may actually believe what they are saying. This would place them more than half-way to insane. 

At least, with Harper (the scumbag currently in power), one has a reasonable assurance that he knows better; that he is fecklessly telling people the kind of nonsense they want to hear.

Or in a word, lying, also, buying people off with their own money in a corrupt and utterly cynical way.

(I sure hope he wins.)

400px-And_BabiesYup, me too.  Better the devil you know, considering the easy case to be made that Harper, by ANY “reasonable” standard, may just be the ONLY “competent” prime minister in the entire history of the Dominion.

Of course how can any Progressive voter possibly rate “competence” higher than “nice justin-trudeau11 n-TRUDEAU-ABORTION-POSTCARD-570hair” and “tattoos” (see “low information voter” above)?

And do we really want to re-visit the “Baby Killer” Liberal meme of the 70’s?

As both Boy Trudeau and Obergruppenführer Mulcair are on record to the effect that

In the NDP, no MP is ever going to vote against the woman’s right to choose. No one will be allowed to run for the NDP if they don’t believe that it is a right in our society for women to make their own choices on their reproductive health. Period.”

and in the Liberal camp

On Wednesday, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau said his party will not accept anti-abortion candidates, although current Liberal MPs who are anti-abortion can remain in caucus, he said.”

gestapo-concentration-campjustintrudeau2So by virtue of a picture of a few dead bodies on a trail (see Q & A pic above) and a controversial interview by a Progressive talking head, all members of the military were unilaterally declared “baby killers” and condemned as such by all the usual MSM touts.

On the other hand, the same MSM touts and all the usual liberal democratic and socialist politicos call 100,000 murdered children a year “woman’s health”.  SERIOUSLY????

When considering the actual facts, is there even a shred of evidence separating Progressives and their politicians from the folks running ISIS land or the regime that set up the famous Gestapo death camps???

You own this one Justin and Thomas … 275 children murdered every day, day after day, the death factories never stop. Canada’s very own home made holocaust. Can any Liberal Progressives even count that high?

Waiting on the Night to Fall”, Casting Crowns 2013

 

Cheers

Joe

CSRDisclaimer for the nit pickers: we take pride in being incomplete, incorrect, inconsistent, and unfair. We do all of them deliberately.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Politics and Economics

Update to Oil Stored in Tankers …

In a previous post which talked in part about Oil in tankers , it was the post on Race to the Bottom – part 2,

I subscribe to a number of financial and investment newsletters, and yes they are always touting some special item or other, but they often touch on intelligence items which lead me to search out interesting events and situations which may affect us here in flatland, Canada. With our new NDP government committing us to ever increasing debt and deficit spending it is only sensible to keep a weather ear cocked to the winds of international trade. And it looks again, from another direction, like we may be in for a bit of a protracted era of bargain basement oil compared to a few years ago. Anyway, here is a quote from one of the newsletters:

***

“I recently learned that Iran has at least 34 large supertankers of oil, anchored and positioned in the Persian Gulf and in other spots across the world. In total, we’re looking at about 50 million barrels of Iranian oil in floating storage. In fact, it may be more than 34 tankers, but I’m using the lowest number. Those 50 million barrels — or more — of Iranian oil afloat are awaiting a date officially to go on sale.

Although there may already be side deals for much of it. That is, one way or another, when Iran sanctions lift, global oil markets will feel the inflow of 50 million “new” barrels, perhaps quickly or perhaps trickled in more slowly over time. It’s not as if this is “long lead time” oil, either. No, since it’s already loaded into tankers, all that has to happen is a set of sailing orders goes to the ship captain and the tanker is on the move.

One way or another, these 50 million (or more) Iranian barrels will affect the global marketplace. They’ll tend to knock down the price of oil — unless there’s an utter catastrophe elsewhere that shuts off entire regions from export markets. Looking ahead, when you read that Iran sanctions are lifting, be prepared to watch the price of oil take a slide. No, it’s not the kind of thing that’ll crash markets like, say, last November and December, but it’ll affect share prices for oil producers and service companies.

If you’re a long-term investor, you’ll see bargains appear overnight. Here at OI, we’re onto the issue, and we’ll discuss potential ideas as they pop up.

Oil Math
Meanwhile, let’s do some oil math. Take 50 million Iranian barrels in storage times (say) $50 per barrel — a low ball number. That’s a $2.5 billion increase to Iran’s national balance sheet overnight when sanctions lift. Hey, no wonder the Iranians are so keen to make a “deal” and kill the sanctions regime. They can sell the oil in storage and take the money and it’s not as if anyone can ever get it back from them.

After sanctions go away, Iran returns to international oil markets in a big way, selling oil every day. Say it’s 1 million barrels per day, to start. There’s another $50 million (or more) to Iran every day. Meanwhile, oil sale contracts tend to evolve into long-term plays, because buyers tailor refineries to particular blends of oil, and it’s expensive to change. So Iranian oil exports will be hard to stop in the event that anyone wants to reimpose sanctions.

All in all, I’m convinced that the Obama administration wants a “deal” with Iran. It’ll mean significant change across the Middle East and through the world — a long story for another note. Meanwhile, a significant part of the Jewish community doesn’t like the state of affairs with Iran, I assure you, so watch for political blowback. And when Iran sanctions lift, watch for 50 million or more Iranian barrels to depress oil markets. ”

***

… and I think 40 dollar oil is not out of the question. Gee, I wonder what that will do to the NDP budget. $40 oil from existing producing wells and no new drilling anywhere.  Maybe the oil sands will be shut down.  Wouldn’t that be a kick in the pants for the economy. Well the environmentalists would be just totally orgasmic about that wouldn’t they?  And what about the extra 1 million barrels a day that Iran can add to the glut, Added to the 1.9 million barrels a day surplus to needs that the Saudis are already pumping.

So we are looking at, sometime in the near term, the sudden appearance of an extra 50 million + barrels of cheap oil and somewhere around 3 million barrels a day being pumped which are surplus to world needs and I wonder what happens to the world price of oil?

Cheers

Joe

CSR

Disclaimer for the nit pickers: we take pride in being incomplete, incorrect, inconsistent, and unfair. We do all of them deliberately

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Pen as Sword - Social Commentary, Politics and Economics

Sober Second Thought … part 1

After a day of listening to my customers and some of my friends, and the media, the consensus regarding the “earthshaking” and “shocking” changes in the political landscape in Alberta is pretty much as expected. Actually there is no consensus, with each and every party and individual expressing their fears or joys according to their particular religion. And it really is religion since every thought is focused on the unknowable future coupled with one’s own fears and hopes and that is it in a nutshell – fear that the future will not hold good things or hope that it will. So why do I choose to name this interplay of opinion and social relations as “religion”?

First we should define “religion”, since it is notoriously hard to nail down just what folks are describing with the word “religion. A religion is an organized collection of beliefs, cultural systems, and world views that relate humanity to an order of existence. Many religions have narratives, symbols, and sacred histories that aim to explain the meaning of life, the origin of life, or the Universe. From their beliefs about the cosmos and human nature, people may derive morality, ethics, religious laws or a preferred lifestyle. The word religion is sometimes used interchangeably with faith or set of duties; however, in the words of Émile Durkheim, religion differs from private belief in that it is “something eminently social”.

Rachel KnotleySo given the religious leaning of virtually ALL commentary and reporting on the “Shocking” Alberta election, I thought I would take some time to get on record what the “Official” religion of the Alberta NDP is. It can be taken as given that the Federal NDP and the provincial wings of that Socialist movement all move in lock step so what is reported here more or less applies to all NDP parties everywhere in Canada.

So let’s see, where to start, well, first Full Disclosure:

In my late teens and early twenties I was a member of the NDP and a working passionate believer in what they claimed to stand for. So What Happened?  Well, I guess I just grew up and became an adult. It happens to some folks. There is a saying around here, maybe everywhere, “If you are not a Socialist in your youth you have no heart. If you are still a Socialist as an adult you have no brain”. That saying or some variation probably exists everywhere folks recognize the difference between Makers and Takers. Anyway, …

Where do the new NDP majority government stand on the “issues” in Alberta?  What is the “public face” of the NDP religion? The only source readily available as of this writing ( 12:17 Friday, May 08, 2015) is the CBC News Vote Compass site at http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-ndp-on-the-issues-according-to-vote-compass-1.3063567  .

I have been listening to the CBC tell me they are the voice of Canadians for maybe 50 years now. Since CBC is the self-proclaimed voice of Canadians we are going to stretch a bit and assume that this is a reliable source of “truth”. Nothing disingenuous about this at all. I think we can count on CBC to accurately report positions and views that more or less line up with what they consider correct thinking. As the official propaganda agency of all Canadian leftists everywhere I don’t think it’s a stretch to give the CBC credibility when reporting on the Socialist religion and it’s goals and ambitions.

It is important to note that except for three Independent Media sources, every other cited source found on this CBC site has been removed from the web. Funny thing that, I have never experienced such a clean sweep of relevant references from the web in over 20 years of using web searches.

The three references still posted are the 2 Global News article at http://globalnews.ca/news/515457/should-political-donations-form-corporations-and-unions-be-banned-in-alberta/  and  http://globalnews.ca/news/382080/alberta-public-sector-workers-paid-10-per-cent-more-than-private-sector-counterparts-report-finds/. The third  remaining reference is the Calgary Herald article at http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/prentice-heads-to-washington-as-keystone-heats-up .

The continued existence of these three articles might have something to do with the Global News source for the public sector wages data being the Fraser Institute report based on Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey data from April 2011. Obviously, the Alberta NDP and the CBC don’t control Fraser Institute and Statistics Canada,nor do they control Global News or the Calgary Herald.  Hmmm, someone must have screwed up there.

For the rest, I guess we will just have to trust the integrity of the CBC and their reporters and writers.  I hope and trust that the cited sources WILL be re-posted after the NDP take power and the NDP Webmasters and the Alberta Government Webmasters have a chance to see which way the wind blows.

Subterranean Homesick Blues, Bob Dillon, from the album “Bringing It All Back Home”, 1965

Anyway, here are the positions on the issues according to the unsubstantiated claims of the CBC (aka, The Canadian Liberal Propaganda Ministry, also reported as “the voice of the Canadian people” in every CBC broadcast and TV show.)

NOTE: it is important to understand that the entire CBC questionnaire is phrased in such a way that for most of the position statements the CBC “Political Scientists” have chosen to phrase the statements to state the exact OPPOSITE of what the Socialist position would typically be.  I don’t pretend to understand the logic of my betters here but at first glance it seems duplicitously misleading and given a cursory glance might lead the reader to believe that the Alberta NDP have the same extreme right wing views as the Strawman Racist Nazis of the other parties in Alberta. NOT SO !!!!!  Read the whole paragraph to understand the actual or strongly implied position of the NDP.

While the party positions and their statements on each issue included in Vote Compass http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/votecompass/alberta2015.html  are available in the application itself, CBC News has replicated the research in their Vote Compass site to provide direct access to key aspects of the Alberta NDP’s plans for the province, which were stated at different times before the election. Which is a really really good thing since all other traces of the NDP religion have been wiped from the web. Fortunately I have saved everything off line so when this page goes away I will still have the data.

Rachel-Notley-runningNext Post :  “The 29 Commandments”, Starring Rachel Notley and a supporting cast of 1000’s.  Here we see the Prophet Rachel returning from the Mountain. Even though she is bringing 29 commandments, there are no Tablets in evidence. Well Shucks Little Lady,  in the 21st century we don’t have to hump stone tablets. Everything including supporting references are all included on a USB key in her pouch.

Cheers

Joe

Disclaimer for the nit pickers: we take pride in being incomplete, incorrect, inconsistent, and unfair. We do all of them deliberately

 

 

 

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